Wednesday, February 17, 2021

The “US” Versus “Them” Problem

Right off the bat I need to acknowledge that virtually none of what follows here is original – at best it is a distillation of the thoughts of many that accumulated and eventually forced themselves out of memory and into the forebrain.  That process has been driven by the rather common human need to make sense of the incomprehensible mess we seem to have gotten ourselves into as a species and wondering what   our options are to escape it.

In the film “Jurassic Park”, chaotician Ian Malcolm argues that “If there's one thing the history of evolution has taught us, it's that life will not be contained. Life breaks free, it expands to new territories, and crashes through barriers painfully, maybe even dangerously, but, uh, well, there it is. ... Life will find a way.”

Humanity (I am trying to avoid using any such term as homo sapiens, which seems a permanent walking oxymoron, or the Human Race, because look where that kind of thinking and language has gotten us) seems increasingly challenged by the problem of even agreeing on what problems challenge it.  A great deal of the trouble arises from the persistence of ‘it’s them or us’ thinking at all socio-political levels.

Of course, in its deepest roots, “them or us” began as “him or me” – when the first two single cell organisms encountered each other, and each worked through a short question sheet – possibly headed by ‘can I eat it?’ – but at some point included the question of ‘what is this that is not ‘me’?  but usually concluded with ‘It’s him or me’ and there was again only a lone single cell (albeit perhaps bigger) single cell.

Eventually, enough experience with ‘him or me’ gave rise to the realization that if I can get more ‘me’s’ together then it won’t be ‘him or me’ but it will be ‘him or us’ – and I have a much better chance of coming out successfully on the other end if I am among the ‘us’.  It didn’t take long for ‘him’ to figure out what ‘me’ had figured out and so ‘him or me’ became ‘them or us’.

This launched the still ongoing discussion of defining who is ‘them’ and who is ‘us’.  History, political science, anthropology, etc. all pretty much agree on the succeeding conversations about ‘us’ moving up from family, to clan, to tribe, hamlet, village, town, city, nation, empire, and so on.  The technology available today has somewhat complicated the conversation of ‘us or them’ by introducing new criteria to the identification process – are you ‘Star Wars’ or ‘Star Trek’ [with no serious room set aside for ‘Galaxy Quest’ or ‘1999’]; are you Budweiser or burgundy or bourbon? are you baseball or football [aka soccer, introducing another criterion]?  Introducing such criteria into the conversation sometimes renders moot the answer to what family, clan, tribe, hamlet, village, town, etc. you are because the answers to these new questions have already placed ‘us’ or ‘them’ beyond the pale of recognizable human life forms.

I also agree with the idea that our world is now the equivalent of a planetary petri dish in the back corner of the rack.  Any intelligence out there capable of intergalactic/interstellar travel only approaches us in the equivalent of full PPE gear – essentially just checking to see if it’s time to scrape this petri dish clean and start over.

Which leads me to share my observation that whatever aspirations we, us, or them have for expanding humanity beyond this third rock from the sun are themselves moot until we get past the ‘them or us’ problem.  Humanity’s progress to date, whether measured by technology, economics, territory occupied, etc., has generally been linked to successfully expanding the ‘us’.  One sad option too often adopted has been to increase the ‘us’ by reducing the number of ‘them’.  History tells us how many times in how many ways humanity has done this, but it is worth noting that modern science has also discovered in our DNA traces of multiple human ancestry including both Neanderthal and Denisovan and now possibly others.  So obviously, multiple ancestors over time looked at ‘them’ and acted on the primordial desire to go from ‘me’ to ‘us’ by the most natural pathway.  Wow, we just ended up at “make love not war”.  Can’t get any more Boomer than that.

 

Monday, January 11, 2021

"Here they come again!"

 

The rioters have been removed from Capitol Hill, the tear gas, pepper spray, and fire extinguisher residue is being cleaned away, and individuals on all sides are looking at the lessons learned – emphasis on “all” sides.  The defenders have less than nine days to prepare for the next assault which will itself be informed by what the terrorists learned on January 6.

Adendorff:  “They’re counting your guns.  Can’t you see that old boy up on the hill?  He’s counting your guns.  Testing your fire power with the lives of his warriors.”

In addition to time, the preparations face other obstacles.  The theft of laptops and the access to Capitol Hill computers and communication systems during the occupation of the building means that these systems are compromised.  Those responsible for Capitol Hill security may want to consider avoiding these systems and dig out some old IBM Selectric III typewriters, use hand carried messages and typewritten documents.  Going old tech in this fashion enabled the Germans to surprise the American troops in the Ardennes Forest in the Battle of the Bulge.  Our codebreakers never caught a serious whiff of the planning.

My last century National Guard training and ‘related’ experiences emphasized the importance of the display of potential force but exercising it with restraint.  This was a missing element on January 6.  There were no reserves on hand and none on call.  Military history is replete with examples of mistaken reliance on poorly placed reserves too far away to be able to execute a timely and effective intervention.

The element of surprise will be crucial to the coming events, for both defenders and any hopeful terrorists seeking to act out their delusions.  Surprise can take many forms.  Years ago I was the officer in charge of a small overseas State Department post.  Local police informed us that a local student youth group intended to occupy our premises later that day.  The authorities would post a police presence at the entrance to the building in which we were located.  For ourselves, we had a small suite of offices which were secured against the public by a counter barrier topped with bulletproof glass and doors secured by Simplex locks.  I advised our one local hire security officer of our expectations and asked him to take one additional precaution – change the combinations to our Simplex locks and change not just the numbers but the pattern used.  We enjoyed a quiet day at the office and our security officer reported (with enjoyment) watching one individual trying to open the doors but failing because he did not know the new number combination or pattern.  Surprise!  Capitol Hill Police and their supporting agencies will definitely want to be able to ‘run some new plays’ leading up to January 20.

Monday, September 14, 2020

Musings on Grunts In Space

When you look at the history of war on a continuous timeline from the past into the future, you can sometimes see things you hadn’t picked up on before.  These observations were inspired by recent discussions about war and warfare in space and how it might reflect the history of war and warfare even in this new environment.  My thanks to the USS Pershing Officers Club page on Facebook and the related History Department at Star Fleet Academy for contributing their time, thoughts, and experience to the conversation – but any errors in this posting are strictly my own.

Historically, battlefields are defined by two factors –

1) the effective range of the most numerous projectile weapons;

2) the ability of the army commander to communicate his wishes to his troops by voice or by signaling with drums, horns, banners, field phones, radios, etc.; and, 

3) the population density of a battlefield reflects the PK (percentage of kill per shots fired) of the most common projectile weapon modified by the rate of fire.  The greater the chance of not being killed by enemy fire, the greater the number of combatants that will crowd the battlefield.

As technology advanced the battlefield expanded, became more complex and less densely populated.  A major driver of this was the increasing range and accuracy of indirect fire weapons.  The trend was further reinforced when the air space over the battlefield itself became a combat zone and technology now enabled weapons a world a way to directly impact the battlefield. 

Historically, battles have been fought in extremely hostile environments.  One such environment was the North African desert in World War II; others were the Alps between Italy and the Austro-Hungarian Empire in World War I; more recently the Himalayas between India and China; the North Atlantic almost anytime; and the Murmansk convoy routes in World War II.  However, none of these environments were as deadly as outer space, where everything will kill you.

Humans require a completely artificial environment such as a specially designed space suit, ship, or station just to be there.  The quickest way in space to render an enemy “combat ineffective” is to destroy their supporting environment’s capability to support life.  This vulnerability suggests that there is probably still a place in the space infantryman’s kit for bladed, edged weapons or even tools (the Russians traditionally use entrenching tools or shovels) which can open a suit or a soft environmental shell, or damage external life support fittings.

We have yet to see actual combat in space, but we have endless imaginings of what it might look like via books, graphic novels, television shows, and movies.  I am old enough to remember watching 1950s space shows and old B&W movie serials rerun on TV – Flash Gordon, Buck Rogers, Commander Cody, etc., then First Men in the Moon, and Forbidden Planet.  More recently, Dr. Who has offered several visions of combat in space and on the surface of numerous and varied planets.   These days, favorites include Battle for Los Angeles for its depiction of the grit of infantry combat against alien invaders; the original Star Wars trilogy for its space battles (stolen liberally from the WW2 movies I grew up on); Starship Troopers, which has a good feel for the surface combat even as it flaunts its political messaging to the point of satire.  The more recent “Firefly/Serenity” and “The Expanse” universes have offered some small scale combat as well.  The conversations that I noted above with the USS Pershing crew and the Star Fleet Academy History Department focused primarily on weapons used by and against the Federation, usually only by ‘away teams’, landing parties, and an occasional raiding party, and rarely depicting major ground combat  operations.

The most serious challenge in space is providing sufficient energy to power everything.  In space, energy is the coin of the realm and governs everything you do.  Everything that keeps you alive in space consumes energy, and that’s before you start traveling around at whatever speed your propulsion system can achieve.  Your weaponry, whether projectile or energy beam or energy pulse, and any possible shielding against enemy weapons, consumes more of that energy.  The energy sources currently available to us, or even foreseeable to us, are barely capable of letting us putt-putt around near space.

In our speculative fictional depictions of space combat, hand and/or shoulder weapons usually fire either a form of energy beam or pulse, or a physical projectile.  In some cases, a projectile weapon uses a recognizable cartridge containing a propellant (such as gunpowder) and a projectile or bullet.  Ignited by the striking of the hammer against the cartridge case when the trigger is pulled, that explosion sends the projectile down the barrel much as in today’s firearms.  This basic system can be adapted to function in space (where it would be prudent for this explosion to consume both the propellant and its cartridge case container as some of our contemporary weapons do minimizing waste).  Projectiles might also be launched by physical mechanical means (as with crossbows, for example) or by technical means such as an electromagnetic field as used for rail guns.  However, while space is a vacuum, the projectile will still be subject to whatever gravity fields are present and whatever other dust, particles, or other objects might be in its path to its target or beyond.  In the event of a miss though this may still result in it having a greater range than if fired in Earth’s atmosphere.  There is also the matter of Newton’s Third Law of Motion, which states that for every action (force) in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction thus affecting both the projectile and the firer (suggesting an additional use for those ‘magnetic’ boots).  These laws do also apply in space but with variations in gravitational fields and attractions from what we are accustomed to on Earth.  There is also the question of whether the energy beam or pulse fired from a small arm has Mass thus generating an opposing reaction when that Mass is fired towards a target.

Beam weapons (laser pistols, phasers, disrupters, etc.) draw upon an internal power source to generate a beam or burst of energy which is then directed (“aimed”) at an enemy individual/target.  In some variations the weapon can be adjusted to render the targeted individual unconscious or ‘stunned’ or alternatively to completely destroy that individual and leave no remains (with an as yet undiscussed impact upon casualty reporting and the activities of graves registration units, unless there is some form of electronic ‘dog tag’ or tracer link that would register the individual as wounded or killed).

Having identified a suitable new energy source (we will magic away the details for now), we still need to find efficient and effective ways to use it in multiple applications.  For much of the history of firearms, soldiers have carried a load of 100-200 additional rounds in order to be able to quickly reload while remaining on the battlefield.  Thus, for hand held weapons, we need a rechargeable portable power pack to act as a ‘magazine’ or ‘clip’. 

·         How many powerpacks would be needed to enable the user of these handheld weapons to do likewise?

·         Can these power packs be safely and successfully stored fully charged or should they be held empty and only charged soon before issue to personnel?

·         How long would it take to charge these energy packs simultaneously or sequentially?

·         Given this energy source – is it better for space ships to have an armory in which these weapons can be stored and transported versus the energy expenditure and time required for Star Fleet style replicators to produce weapons as needed?

·         Would the replicated weapons need to then be charged or can the system handle the burden of replicating fully charged weapons?

·         Then there is the matter of replicating additional power packs.

In most depictions of such weapons the beam effectively identifies the shooter’s position every time the weapon is fired (as Sergeant Murphy said, “Tracers work both ways”).  The effective range of energy beam weapons is rarely discussed though:

Star Fleet Academy Historians note that “the M2265 [phaser pistol] was limited in range precisely because it was a perfect direct fire system. The beam could maintain coherence for thousands of meters at perfectly straight trajectory with absolutely no deviation due to gravity or wind resistance. This meant the curvature of planetoids would start to become a significant problem [for targeting].  However, in practice, the weapon was rarely used at those power levels, especially because there was no way the average humanoid could fire a handgun accurately even with optical targeting assistance at ranges beyond 150 meters.”

By comparison, according to The Star Fleet History Department, there are two weapons beyond the hand held lasers/phasers used by Star Fleet:

“The TR-116 projectile rifle is a prototype weapon developed by the Federation for situations where conventional energy weapons might be rendered useless by damping fields or other countermeasures. It is essentially a conventional rifle, but with a rather futuristic visual style. It is introduced in the Star Trek: Deep Space Nine episode "Field of Fire", where it is used in conjunction with a micro-transporter and a visual scanner headpiece to create an extremely potent sniper rifle. With the scanner, the shooter can precisely target people hundreds of meters away and through solid matter with no difficulty. Using the transporter attached to the barrel, the slug can then be transported during motion at full velocity, thus capable of traveling through walls and materializing within point-blank range of the target.”

It would be interesting to test the TR-116 to measure what velocity the projectile in fact had as it materialized close to the target.   I would also interpret the use of a micro-transporter to in fact mean that the projectile does not actually ‘fly through’ any obstacle since it presumably enters the transport process on the near side of any obstacle(s) and is then transported from that point to a point on the far side of those obstacle(s).

Unless the beam or energy burst is completely dissipated in the process of destroying a target, these weapons appear to risk inflicting blue on blue casualties if not carefully placed and used on the battlefield (possibly affecting even friendly atmospheric or space craft in the line of fire?).  Is there a special need to avoid friendly fire from weapons that in space have essentially infinite range?  Finally, I have to believe that any useful model of such an energy based weapon would have some form of indicator to tell the person carrying the weapon how many potential shots are left in it, something that is not clear with regard to various depicted beam weapons.

In Earth history, from the first introduction of firearms until the First World War, an entire infantry unit usually all carried the same weapon.  As technology improved during the 20th Century, infantry units down to the squad level were given increased firepower in the form of semi-automatic and fully automatic weapons – light machine guns, supporting heavy machine guns as well as a standard rifle.  Further support was provided by heavier and frequently indirect fire weapons such as grenades, mortars, and rocket launchers for use against armored vehicles or fortified enemy positions.  Extremely accurate long range projectile weapons in the hands of trained snipers were also used against high value enemy individuals such as officers and radiomen.

The History Department also identified plasma mortars used as far back as the early 23rd Century but these have been rarely seen since:

 

The weapon presumably has a system for launching the projectile from the tube independently of the round itself so that the bomb flies in a parabolic arc to impact on the intended target.  Given the probably variations in gravity, etc., in which the weapon might be deployed, it would be sensible for the weapon to incorporate sensors that would measure all important parameters so that the firer of the mortar has simply to indicate the target.

In fact, give that reserves of manpower, munitions, weaponry, etc. are likely to either be minimal or quite distantly remote from the battlefield, all deployed weapons need to be enhanced to the achieve the highest levels of accuracy, performance, and PK (percentage of kill per rounds expended).  During the “Desert Storm” war with Iraq that liberated Kuwait, the accuracy of precision guided munitions launched from aircraft marked a dramatic change in PK from World War II or even Vietnam.  That technology is now reaching down to the infantry’s weapons and is likely to continue to be applied to weapons deployed in space where logistical limits will place further demands on not wasting a single shot.  The battlefield commander is unlikely to have the luxury even of George Armstrong Custer whose last message read, “Benteen.  Come On. Big Village. Be quick. Bring Packs.  P.S. Bring packs. W.W.  Cooke.”